You and Swine Flu

Undoubtedly, this weeks global headline has quickly become the spread of Swine Flu. News reports tally up the known death toll and where it has most recently been reported. Pictures of people running around with masks lead us to think that there is something seriously going on here. Well in a sense there is. There actually is a flu that will potentially be spread around the world. People will get sick and some will probably die. Sounds scary doesn't it? Sounds like something you better keep up on so you know when its time to put on your mask. Well, before you start calling your doctor looking for a flu vaccine, or avoiding your favorite Mexican food restaurant here are somethings to think about:

- On average, the U.S. has around 36,000 deaths each year from influenza and related flu complications. (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm)

- As of 4/29/09, there are 91 confirmed cases of Swine Flu in the U.S. That comes to 0.00003% of the U.S. population.

Assuming the current worst case estimates of 2,500 people infected and 160 people dead in Mexico as a result of Swine Flu we'd be looking at:

- .002 % of the Mexican population have been infected by a disease that has been present in the region for two months.

- If we were to assume that this rate of spread stayed consistent over the course of a year, this would come to a total number of infected people of 30,000 with approximately 1,920 people dying.

- If similar rates were experienced here in the U.S., we'd be looking at a comparable figure of about 42,000 people being infected over the course of a year and about 2,700 deaths.

This additional 2,700 flu deaths would be an 8% increase over the average.

Now there are a lot of things that aren't accounted for here. First, the figures I've given are highly simplistic. The disease could spread exponentially and the number of infected people could be way higher. On the other side of the coin, the disease, having been given a free pass before being recognized could have resulted in more deaths initially, but will overtime will find its mortality rate decreased due to increased awareness and earlier seeking of treatment. I don't know the answers to these questions. However, the current status of the disease and the spread of the disease leads me to think that while there will be a relatively smaller (compared to the world's total population) amount of sick people in the world and a few more deaths, we really don't have anything to be mortally afraid of.

You hate to see it, but it is a fact of life that we die of illnesses all the time. What I'd really hate to see are we live our lives couched in fear because of it. So next time the Swine Flu comes on the TV, turn the channel. Better yet, turn it off and go outside. If the Swine Flu is coming you'll know without the evening news telling you so.